Draft
Payouts and settlement
How the distributable pool is shared by weighted stake, what projected payouts cover, and how a round moves from a provisional result to settlement, claims and refunds.
Your payout is the total collateral returned by settlement. To understand whether you made a profit, compare that payout with your stake:
Net result before transaction costs = payout − stake.
Network fees and any account-related costs must be accounted for separately. The protocol fee is already reflected in the distributable pool and should not be deducted a second time from the same calculation.
How the pool is distributed
For a normal round, the protocol calculates the fee using the rate recorded when the round opened. The remaining pool is distributed according to weighted stakes. Each position's weight depends on the distance between its prediction range and the final result.
A higher weight gives each unit of stake a larger share of the pool. The weight describes allocation; it is not a probability of winning. The total payout also depends on your stake and everyone else's weighted stake.
Projected payouts
A projected payout assumes a particular result and pool distribution. The standard "if exact" estimate assumes the final result matches your prediction. Later predictions, a different final result, or changes arising from the dispute process can change the outcome.
In the current interface, the EVM prediction ticket estimates the new stake. The Solana projection card covers the combined position in the selected range, including any existing stake there. Read the scope before comparing figures when adding to a position.
TBC before publication: the fee, minimum stake and pool limits that apply to a live market, and the final labels used by the EVM and Solana projections once the interface is frozen.
Worked example
The worked example below assumes normal settlement, no dispute-bond adjustments, a 1% protocol fee and a token with six decimal places. These are illustrative parameters, not a statement of a live market's settings.
Three participants each stake 100, so the pool is 300. The final result is +1.00%. The example uses a range width of 0.10 percentage points and a half-life distance (HL) of 2 percentage points, which produces the weights below.
| Participant | Prediction range | Stake | Weight | Weighted stake | Payout | Net before costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | +1.00% to +1.10% | 100 | 1 | 100 | ≈169.71 | +69.71 |
| B | +3.00% to +3.10% | 100 | 0.5 | 50 | ≈84.86 | −15.14 |
| C | +5.00% to +5.10% | 100 | 0.25 | 25 | ≈42.43 | −57.57 |
The 1% protocol fee is 3, leaving 297 in the distributable pool. Weighted stakes of 100, 50 and 25 give shares of 4:2:1. All three positions receive a payout, but before transaction costs only participant A is ahead of the stake.
Illustrative parameters only. Fee rates, range widths, weight parameters and pool sizes differ by market and round, so the amounts above are not a live market's figures.
Actual payouts floor to the minimum unit of the token; the table above shows two decimals for readability. Under the six-decimal precision assumed in this example, the actual payouts are 169.714285, 84.857142 and 42.428571, with a remainder of 0.000002.
From provisional result to settlement
A provisional result is not yet claimable. The challenge period must end, outstanding disputes must be resolved, and finalization must complete. Once the round is settled, claim within the stated claim window: unclaimed funds may subsequently be swept.
If the round becomes void, use the refund process to recover your stake. This does not reimburse previously paid network fees. Waiting a long time by itself does not make a round refundable; the round must enter the void state.
Common paths only. Reporting and resolving a dispute and running finalization require chain actions; a timer reaching zero does not perform them automatically. Finalization is an action; a normally settled round ends in the SETTLED state, while the void branch ends in VOID. Claims and refunds do not change these round states. Only a round in the void state is refundable.