Draft
What is Timu Daily?
Daily price prediction markets: how a prediction becomes a range with a weight, how the pool is shared, and how payouts and refunds work.
Timu Daily is a daily price prediction market. You choose a market and a trading date, predict the asset's percentage price change, and commit an amount of the market's collateral token.
For the A-share close-to-close markets described here, the prediction concerns the day's closing price relative to the data source's reference previous close. For example, a reference price of 100 and a closing price of 102 represent a daily change of +2%. The final settlement result follows the market's data, rounding and validation rules.
Predicting a daily price change
Your prediction is assigned to a small percentage range. Predictions assigned to the same range receive the same weight per unit of stake. A range closer to the final result generally receives a higher weight.
Assumes a range width of 0.10 percentage points. Two predictions inside the same range receive the same weight per unit of stake, but different stakes still produce different payouts.
Round flow, claims and refunds
In a normally settled round, the distributable pool is shared according to each position's stake and weight. Your payout also depends on where other participants placed their stakes. Selecting a close prediction does not guarantee a profit.
After the result becomes final, you claim any available payout. If the round is marked void, you use the refund process to recover your stake. Previously paid network fees are separate.
Normal rounds follow the solid path from choosing a market through settlement to claiming a payout. Market data and the oracle report feed the challenge window and final settlement. The dashed branch applies only when a round is marked void.
What a position is not
Participating creates a prediction position; it does not give you ownership of the referenced stock. Your stake is at risk.
Publication checklist
The following items still need to be confirmed before publication:
- The official application URL and documentation domain.
- The officially supported networks and markets, and each market's collateral token.
- Actual fee rates, minimum stake, pool limits, time zones and deadlines, and the challenge and claim windows.
- How to obtain the correct test collateral and network tokens, and the supported wallet instructions.
- Frontend status: the interface is a work in progress, so final screenshots and button labels must be confirmed against the released version.